دانشگاه تهران فصلنامه سیاست 1735-9678 56 3 2026 09 23 The Quad Alliance in Indo-Pacific Security Dynamics: A Theoretical Examination of Threat Perception اتحاد کواد در معادلات امنیتی ایندو-پاسیفیک؛ تحلیلی نظری بر ادراک تهدید 862 835 107508 10.22059/jpq.2026.400447.1008409 FA مهرشاد غفاری زاده دانشجوی دکتری، روابط بین‌الملل، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و علوم اداری، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. نوذر شفیعی دانشیار، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. 0000-0001-7747-6697 Journal Article 2025 08 17 Introduction The strategic rivalry between the United States and China has become one of the central axes of international relations in the 21st century. This competition has intensified particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, recognized as a focal point of geopolitical and economic developments. In an effort to contain China’s growing power, the United States has turned to strengthening bilateral and multilateral alliances. One such alliance is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. It aims to create strategic synergy in the security, economic, and diplomatic domains. Focusing on the Quad's revival in 2017, this paper seeks to answer the question: What variables led to the reemergence of this informal alliance? The main objective of the research is to analyze the role of shared threat perception from China in the formation and consolidation of the Quad, using Stephen Walt’s theory of balance of threat. The article endeavors to demonstrate how macro-level factors in the international system—particularly the perceived threat posed by China’s rise—have led to strategic convergence among the Quad members. Methodology This study adopts a descriptive-analytic method and uses Walt’s balance of threat theory as its theoretical framework. The theory focuses on four key variables in analyzing threat perception: aggregate power, geographic proximity, offensive capabilities, and aggressive intentions. To examine these variables, official security and defense documents from the Quad member states (such as the U.S. National Security Strategies, Japan’s Defense White Papers, Australia’s defense documents, and India’s Ministry of Defense annual reports) have been analyzed across two key timeframes: 2007 and 2017. These timeframes correspond with the initial formation and subsequent revival of the Quad. Economic and military data—including GDP and military expenditures—have been extracted from reliable sources such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to facilitate a quantitative and qualitative assessment of aggregate power and offensive capabilities. Results and Discussion The research findings indicate that a shared perception of threat from China has been the primary driver behind the Quad’s revival. Based on the balance of threat theory, the variables such as aggregate power, geographic proximity, offensive capabilities, and aggressive intentions of China have directly contributed to the alliance’s formation. In terms of aggregate power, China’s economic and military growth—particularly the increase in its GDP from one-quarter of Japan’s in 2007 to nearly 80% of the U.S. economy by 2024, and the rise in its military spending from one-tenth to one-third of the Quad’s total—highlight an escalating threat. Geographic proximity, especially for Japan and India due to territorial disputes (such as the Senkaku Islands and the Himalayan borders) and their closeness to Taiwan, has further reinforced the threat perception. China's offensive capabilities, including land reclamation in the Spratly Islands and the establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea, have heightened security concerns. Furthermore, China’s aggressive intentions—described in official documents of Quad members as assertive and inconsistent with international norms—have led to strategic alignment. Document analysis shows that the initial optimism of 2007 gradually gave way to growing concerns by 2017. Conclusion The revival of the Quad is a response to geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific and the perceived threat from China’s rise. This informal alliance has been formed to balance China's expanding influence through coordinated security, diplomatic, and economic efforts. While the Quad is unlikely to evolve into an “Asian NATO,” it serves as a flexible network that plays a significant role in maintaining regional stability and containing China. The future of the alliance depends on the trajectory of U.S.-China relations and regional geopolitical dynamics, but at present, the Quad reflects the shared resolve of its members to address challenges posed by China. رقابت استراتژیک میان ایالات ‌متحده و چین در دهه‌های اخیر به محور اصلی تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی در منطقۀ ایندو-پاسیفیک تبدیل شده است. در این چارچوب، اتحاد کواد به‌عنوان چارچوب نوظهور امنیتی میان چهار قدرت دموکراتیک (آمریکا، ژاپن، هند و استرالیا) با هدف مهار نفوذ فزایندۀ چین و حفظ توازن منطقه‌ای شکل گرفته و احیا شده است. سؤال اصلی مقاله این است که چه عواملی در بازتعریف ادراک تهدید از چین نقش داشته‌اند که به احیای اتحاد کواد انجامیده است؟ مقاله با تکیه بر نظریۀ موازنۀ تهدید استفن والت، بر این فرض استوار است که درک مشترک کشورهای عضو کواد از تهدید چین در چهار بُعد قدرت کل، مجاورت جغرافیایی، توان تهاجمی و نیات تهاجمی، عامل اصلی همگرایی راهبردی این کشورها بوده است. روش تحقیق مقاله کیفی و به‌صورت توصیفی-تحلیلی است و برای گردآوری داده‌ها از تحلیل اسنادی منابع رسمی امنیتی و دفاعی کشورهای عضو کواد شامل استراتژی‌های ملی، گزارش‌های دفاعی و داده‌های آماری بهره گرفته شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که اتحاد کواد بیش از آنکه واکنشی به قدرت صرف چین باشد، پاسخی به ادراک تهدید چندلایه‌ای از سوی این کشور است که موجب شکل‌گیری ساختار همکاری امنیتی غیررسمی در منطقۀ ایندو-پاسیفیک شده است. در نهایت، آیندۀ این اتحاد به روند رقابت راهبردی میان آمریکا و چین در منطقه وابسته خواهد بود. https://jpq.ut.ac.ir/article_107508_0f7f2e87b7140290d5040856bcc88a81.pdf