The Role and Performance of Turkmens in the Developments of the Last Decades in Iraq

Introduction
Ethnic minorities present a complex challenge in modern political societies, lacking precise definitions and clear boundaries. This ambiguity complicates interactions between central governments and minority groups. Broadly defined, ethnic minorities are numerically smaller groups within a nation-state that share a distinct identity. They often experience disparities in political participation, governance, and socio-economic influence, frequently facing discrimination, marginalization, and oppression (Dashti, 2011: 141–150).  The subordinate status of minorities in social hierarchies—coupled with perceptions of their identities as "impure" compared to the majority’s homogeneity—renders these groups politically unpredictable and reinforces power inequalities (Moghadam Shad, 2017: 756). Members of such marginalized communities may exhibit *anomic* behaviors, developing critical awareness of their unequal conditions. This consciousness can fuel collective conflict as they seek to alter existing power structures (Ghofman, 2007).  
The British-drawn borders of Iraq created an artificial state comprising Shia and Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmens—a diversity that has profoundly shaped Iraq’s domestic and foreign policies (Badie Aznadahi, 2016: 652). Historically, Iraqi Turkmens have faced systemic discrimination, violence, and exclusion due to their minority status. However, they have increasingly asserted their political and social rights, demanding equal opportunities in employment, education, and linguistic rights, as well as greater participation in decision-making—sometimes even autonomy. 
Constructivist scholars argue that Turkey leverages the plight of Iraqi Turkmens to advance its ethnic policies, using diplomatic pressure to protect Turkmen rights. This serves dual purposes: reinforcing Turkey’s Kemalist identity and fostering internal cohesion (Haq-Panah, 2013: 86). 
Modern Iraq is dominated by three ethnic groups: Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmens. However, due to their smaller population, Turkmens wield limited influence in political, economic, and social spheres, while Arabs and Kurds compete for dominance (Noormohammadi, 2016: 184). 
From King Faisal’s rule to Saddam Hussein’s fall, Iraq’s nation-building strategy relied on forced assimilation, suppressing Kurdish, Turkmen, and Armenian identities in favor of an imposed Arab nationalism, alongside the Sunni minority’s oppression of Shia populations. Post-2003, the U.S.-backed federal model failed to achieve inclusive governance, instead exacerbating ethnic and sectarian tensions. While Kurdistan secured autonomy, the broader federal experiment intensified violence (Sardarnia, 2013: 25). 
The collective trauma of oppression endured by Shia, Kurds, and Turkmens has entrenched subnational solidarities at the expense of a unified Iraqi identity. Despite American efforts to implant democracy, Iraq’s political landscape remains dominated by ethnoreligious divisions, perpetuating cycles of violence.  In the past two decades, Iraq has undergone seismic shifts: the 2003 U.S. invasion, the Ba’ath regime’s collapse, the 2005 constitution, the rise of ISIS (2014), and pervasive U.S. influence over Iraq’s institutions. Throughout these changes, Turkmens have occupied a strategic position, making them a critical case study for analyzing identity politics in the Middle East.  This study examines the role of Iraqi Turkmens in the country’s political, security, and economic transformations over the past twenty years. Turkmens embody five key identity dimensions—religious, sectarian, national, ethnic, and civic—making their experiences vital to understanding broader regional identity dynamics. By analyzing their contributions and challenges, this research seeks to provide a systematic assessment of Turkmens’ impact on Iraq’s evolving landscape. 
 
Methodology
 Given that this research aims to highlight the role and performance of Iraqi Turkmens in recent developments in the country, and that the intended users of this research are foreign policy stakeholders, the study is as an applied research and is exploratory in terms of its objectives. This study employs a mixed-method approach (qualitative and quantitative) that begins with the Delphi method and continues with a survey method.In the qualitative method of the research, a purposive non-random sampling method was used to select 12 experts and specialists. Confirmatory factor analysis and covariance-based path analysis were used to analyze data.
Results and discussion
The study explores the influence of Iraqi Turkmens on the country's political decision-making processes, their contributions to national security and stability, and their impact on economic development. To understand these dynamics, it is necessary to examine the Turkmens' position within Iraq's complex power structures, their perspectives on the country's fragmented political landscape, and their evolving relationships with Kurdish and Arab groups. Given Iraq's susceptibility to external influences, the role of foreign actors must also be considered in any analysis of Turkmen political participation.
Although constituting a minority within a minority, the Turkmens possess significant political leverage, as demonstrated by their electoral influence in both the Kurdistan Region and Iraqi Council of Representatives. Their geographically dispersed population, stretching from Tal Afar to areas near Kifri and Badra, combined with religious diversity encompassing Shia, Sunni, Christian and secular orientations, has resulted in varied political approaches within the Turkmen community itself. Some factions align with Turkish interests, while others support the Iraqi National Alliance's positions on ethnic issues. Certain groups have backed Kurdish autonomy aspirations, whereas others advocate for centralized governance, opposing federalism while aligning with Iranian policies through the Resistance Axis.
The political and cultural organizations representing Iraqi Turkmens have historically received support from Turkey, which seeks to advance its own strategic interests, particularly regarding the oil-rich regions of Kirkuk and Mosul. Turkey aims to enhance the national profile of Turkmens in northern Iraq while protecting their cultural and historical identity. Turkmen leaders maintain that they constitute 70% of Kirkuk's population, while Kurdish groups claim majority status and seek to incorporate the city into the Kurdistan Region. This demographic dispute leaves Turkmens caught between Arab and Kurdish majority groups, creating ongoing challenges in their pursuit of autonomous governance for Turkmen-majority areas.
 
Regional powers pursue competing agendas in Iraq that directly affect Turkmen political prospects. Iran supports Shiite political integration and opposes Kurdish separatism while backing counterterrorism efforts and the Popular Mobilization Forces, which include Turkmen units. The United States has promoted Kurdish autonomy as part of its strategy to counter Iranian influence, a position supported by the United Kingdom. Saudi Arabia has historically supported Sunni groups that sought to counter both Iranian and Kurdish influence, while Syria has opposed U.S.-aligned governance structures in Iraq.
Within this complex environment, Turkmens continue to advocate for equal rights through multiple channels. Their political representatives participate in national institutions, voicing community concerns in policy debates. The integration of Turkmen units into the Popular Mobilization Forces has provided security for Turkmen areas while transcending sectarian divisions. Cultural preservation efforts focus on maintaining linguistic and traditional practices amid assimilation pressures, while economic initiatives seek to improve infrastructure and living conditions in Turkmen communities.
The Turkmen community's ability to navigate Iraq's complex ethnic and sectarian landscape, while leveraging international relationships and asserting cultural-political rights, will significantly influence their future role in either strengthening national cohesion or contributing to further fragmentation. Their strategic position between competing Arab and Kurdish groups, combined with their connections to regional powers, makes them an important factor in Iraq's ongoing political evolution. The community's diverse religious composition and geographic distribution present both challenges and opportunities as they seek to establish a more prominent role in Iraq's governance structures while preserving their distinct identity.
 
Conclusion
The Turkmen community in Iraq has endured significant political marginalization since the fall of the Ottoman Empire, remaining largely excluded from Iraq's political processes until the late 1990s. Even after the 1991 uprisings and the emergence of opposition movements against Saddam Hussein's regime, Turkmens struggled to establish an effective political presence and faced severe repression under successive governments. Turkey's engagement with Iraqi Turkmens has consistently followed a pragmatic approach aligned with its own national interests. However, the post-ISIS period has marked a turning point, bringing notable political, social, and cultural transformations for the Turkmen community. As a distinct ethnic group with populations spread across multiple regions, Turkmens have recently developed stronger political representation through organized parties. Despite constituting only about 2% of Iraq's population and being geographically dispersed, their influence on Iraq's political and economic landscape remains substantial. Historically, Turkmens have played pivotal roles in maintaining Iraq's security and advancing national interests, establishing themselves as a stabilizing force in the country. Nevertheless, Iraqi Turkmens continue to confront serious security challenges and political pressures that threaten both national unity and their community's stability. These threats emerge through various channels - from the stirring of ethnic divisions to direct military actions by armed groups or foreign actors. Simultaneously, Turkmens have contributed positively to Iraq's political evolution by participating in government formation, decision-making processes, and the establishment of democratic institutions. The Turkmen political presence manifests through various organizations including the Iraqi Turkmen Party, the Turkmen Unity Party, and the Turkmen Democratic Party, all working to protect community rights, promote regional development, and preserve cultural identity. These groups address critical issues facing Turkmens, including political marginalization, rights violations, and security concerns, while navigating complex relationships with other ethnic factions. In Iraq's ethnically diverse society, equitable power distribution among groups represents a fundamental requirement for successful democratic governance. Such inclusion enables meaningful participation in political processes, fosters social cohesion, and contributes to long-term stability. For Turkmens, this principle holds particular significance as their political engagement lends legitimacy to Iraq's governing structures while strengthening national unity. This study affirms the Turkmen community's active role in Iraq's political, security, military and economic spheres, particularly through collaboration with unifying national movements. As a strategically important minority, Turkmens have consistently supported Iraq's political processes while enhancing national security. Current trends suggest their influence will grow further as political participation increases. With greater representation and recognition of their rights, Turkmens are poised to play an expanded role in shaping Iraq's economic future and overall development.