رخدادها و سنجش تغییر در باورهای رهبران (مطالعۀ موردی: باراک اوباما و انتخابات ریاست جمهوری یازدهم در ایران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه روابط بین الملل دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی دکترای روابط بین الملل دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

رهبران سیاسی اطلاعات مربوط به موقعیت را بر اساس ادراکات یا به بیان دقیق‌تر باورهای خود پردازش می‌کنند و به برداشتی از موقعیت می‌رسند. با وجود اینکه باورها اغلب در مقابل تغییر مقاومت می‌کنند، تحول در آن‌ها منتفی نیست و ممکن است به علت‌های گوناگونی از جمله وقوع رخدادی خارجی دچار تغییر شوند. در این مقاله چنین تغییری را در باورها بررسی خواهیم کرد. به‌دلیل اهمیت نقش رئیس جمهور آمریکا در سیاست خارجی این کشور، بر تغییر احتمالی باورهای باراک اوباما رئیس جمهورآمریکا پس از انتخابات ریاست جمهوری یازدهم در ایران متمرکز خواهیم شد. فرضیه‌ای که در چارچوب نظریۀ رمزگان عملیاتی و با روش وی‌آی‌سی‌اس مورد آزمون قرار می‌گیرد، این است که تغییر در باورهای اوباما جزئی و محدود، ولی در جهت جلب همکاری‌ بیشتر بوده است. یافته‌های ما جدا از دلایل و زمینه‌های تغییر، این فرضیه را تأیید می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

EVENTS AND EVALUATION OF LEADERS’ BELIEF CHANGE (THE CASE OF BARACK OBAMA AND 11TH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN IRAN)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Khosravi 1
  • Shayan Afrasiabi 2
1 Assistant Professor; International Relation Department, University of Tehran
2 Phd student in International Relation, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Political leaders reprocess the information related to situation based of their cognitions, and then come to a perception of their situation. However beliefs usually resist in confronting to change, but the change may take place by different factors like the occurrence of an outside event. In this article we are going to evaluate such a change in the beliefs of American current president Barack Obama and we want to know if his beliefs has changed after 11th presidential election in Iran or not. The hypothesis, which we test with operational code theoretical framework and by VICS method, is that his beliefs changed only partially and this change is unremarkable, but toward more optimism and cooperation. Without considering the reasons for this change, the results based of the methods we acquired, confirm our hypothesis.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Barack Obama
  • Cognitive approach
  • Operational Code Change
  • US Foreign Policy
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