Document Type : Research Paper


1 Assistant Professor; International Relation Department, University of Tehran

2 Phd student in International Relation, University of Tehran


Political leaders reprocess the information related to situation based of their cognitions, and then come to a perception of their situation. However beliefs usually resist in confronting to change, but the change may take place by different factors like the occurrence of an outside event. In this article we are going to evaluate such a change in the beliefs of American current president Barack Obama and we want to know if his beliefs has changed after 11th presidential election in Iran or not. The hypothesis, which we test with operational code theoretical framework and by VICS method, is that his beliefs changed only partially and this change is unremarkable, but toward more optimism and cooperation. Without considering the reasons for this change, the results based of the methods we acquired, confirm our hypothesis.


الف) فارسی
1. اسمیت، استیو و امیلیا هدفیلد و دان، تیم (1391)، سیاست خارجی: نظریه‌ها، بازیگران، و موارد مطالعاتی، ترجمۀ امیرمحمد حاجی یوسفی و محسن محمودی و ایوب کریمی، تهران: سمت.
2. اسنایدر، ریچارد، بروک، اچ و سپین، برتون (1389)، تصمیم‌گیری در سیاست خارجی، ترجمۀ محمدجعفر جوادی ارجمند و مجید فرهام، تهران: میزان.
3. الیسن، گراهام و زلیکو، فیلیپ (1393)، ماهیت تصمیم‌گیری: تشریح بحران موشکی کوبا، ترجمۀ منوچهر شجاعی، تهران: سمت.
4. کریپندورف، کلوس. (1393)، تحلیل محتوا: مبانی روش‌شناسی. تهران: نی.
5. هاوتن، دیوید (1393)، روان‌شناسی سیاسی، ترجمۀ علی‌اشرف نظری و شهرزاد مفتوح، تهران: قومس.
ب) خارجی
6. Bush, G. (2002), “State of the Union”, The Washington Post, Available at:, (Accessed on: 26 May 2016).
7. Clinton, W. (1996), Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: William J. Clinton, Book I, Washington D. C.: US Government Printing Office.
8. Drury, A. (2006), “Economic Sanctions and Operational Code Analysis: Beliefs and the Use of Economic Coercion”, In Beiliefs and Leadership in World Politics: Methods and Applications of Operational Code Analysis, mark Schafer and Stephen G.walker,ed.,187-200. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
9. Dyson, S. (2001), “Drawing Policy Implications from the Operational Code of a New Political Actor: Russian President Veladimir Putin”, Policy Sciences, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 329-346.
10. George, A. (1969), “The Operational Code: A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 190-222.
11. Grant, P. (1985), “The Bricker Amendment Controversy”, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 572-582.
12. Hermann, M. (2009), “Content Analysis”, In:klotz,A.and prakesh,D.(eds)151-167  Qualitative Methods in International Relations: A Pluralist Guide, london: Palgrave MacMillan.
13. Herrmann, R. (1988), “The Empirical Challenge of the Cognitive Revolution: A Strategy for Drawing Inferences about Perceptions”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 175-203.
14. Holsti, O. (2006), Making American Foreign Policy, New York: Routledge.
15. Holsti, O. (1976), “Cognitive Process Approaches to Decision-Making”, American Behavioral Scientist, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 11-32.
16. Holsti, O. (1970) “The Operational Code Approach to the Study of Political Leaders: John Foster Dulles Philosophical and Instrumental Beliefs”, Canadian Journal of Political Science, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 123-157.
17. Hoxie, R. (1982), “The National Security Council”, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 108-113.
18. Jervis, R. (1976), Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
20. Jones, H. (2008), Crucible of Power: A History of American Foreign Relations from 1897, New York: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers.
21. Katzman, K. (2009), Iran: US Concerns and Policy Responses, Washington D. C.: Congressional Research Service.
22. Krasner, S. (1972) “Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison Wonderland)”, Foreign Policy, 7(summer) pp. 159-179.
23. Lynch, M. and Bogen, D. (1996,) Speech, Text, and Memory at the Iran-Contra Hearings, Durham and London: Duke University Press.
24. Malici, A. and Malici, J. (2005), “The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung: The Last Cold Warriors?”, Political Psychology, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 387-412.
25. McGraw, K. (2000), “Contributions of the Cognitive Approach to Political Psychology”, Political Psychology, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 805-832.
26. McLellan, D. (1971), “The Operational Code Approach to the Study of Political Leaders: Dean Acheson s Philosophical and Instrumental Beliefs”, Canadian Journal of Political Science, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 52-75.
27. Neuman, W. (2007), Basics of Social Research: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches, Edition 2, Boston: Pearson.
28. Obama, B. (2014), “Statement by the President on Nowruz”, 20 Mar, Available at:, (Accessed on: 26 May 2016).
29. Obama, B. (2013), “Remarks by the President in a Conversation with the Saban Forum”, 7 Dec, Available at:, (Accessed on: 26 May 2016).
30. Obama, B. (2009a), “Remarks by the President at Cairo University”, 4 Jun, Available at:, (Accessed on: 26 May 2016).
31. Obama, B. (2009b), “Videotaped Remarks by The President in Celebration of Nowruz”, 20 Mar, Available at:, (Accessed on: 26 May 2016).
32. Obama, B. (2007), “Renewing American Leadership”. Foreign Affairs.8 6/4(July/August, 2–16
33. Peterson, P. (1994), “The President’s Dominance in Foreign Policy Making”, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 109, No. 2, pp. 215-234.
34. Renshon, J. (2008), “Stability and Change in Belief Systems: The Operational Code of George W. Bush”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 52, No. 6, pp. 820-849.
35. Rose, G. (1998), “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”, World Politics, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 144-172.
36. Schafer, M. and Crichlow, S. (2000), “Bill Clinton s Operational Code: Assessing Source Material Bias”, Political Psychology, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 559-571.
37. Schafer, M. and Walker, S. (2006), Beiliefs and Leadership in World Politics: Methods and Applications of Operational Code Analysis, New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
38. Simon, H. (1985), “Human Nature in Politics: The Dialogue of Psychology with Political Science”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 79, No. 2, pp. 293-304.
39. Tetlock, P. and McGuire, C. (1986), “Cognitive Perspectives on Foreign Policy”, In:Slong{ed},political behavior annual(vol.1,pp.255-73)  Psychology and the Prevention of Nuclear War, New York: New York University Press.
40. Walker, S. (1990), “The Evolution of Operational Code Analysis”, Political Psychology, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 403-418.
41. Walker, S. (1977), “The Interface between Beliefs and Behavior: Henry Kissinger s Operational Code and the Vietnam War”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 129-168.
42. Walker, S. and Schafer, M. (2000), “The Political Universe of Lyndon B. Johnson and His Advisors: Diagnostic and Strategic”, Political Psychology, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 529-543.
43. Walker, S., Schafer, M. and Young, M. (1998), “Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis: Measuring and Modeling Jimmy Carter’s Operational Code”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 175-189.
44. Waltz, K. (1959), Man, the State, and War, New York: Columbia University Press.
45. Weinraub, B. (1985), “President Accuses 5 'Outlaw States' of World Terror”, The New York Times, 9 Jul, Available at: world/president-accuses-5-outlaw-states-of-world-terror.html, (Accessed on: 26 May 2016).
46. Winter, D., Hermann, M., Weintraub, W. and Walker, S. (1991), “The Personalities of Bush and Gorbachev Measured at a Distance: Procedures, Portraits, and Policy”, Political Psychology, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 215-245.
47. Young, M. and Schafer, M. (1998), “Is There Method in Our Madness? Ways of Assessing Cognition in International Relations”, Mershon International Studies Review, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 63-96.