Kaliningrad Oblast Geostrategic Position and its Impact on Russia-NATO Security Integral in the Baltic Sea

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Assistant Professor, Department of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law & Political Science, University of Tehran

Abstract

As Russia's only navigable port in the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad has a prominent geostrategic position. Kaliningrad Oblast as an exclave region is miles away from Russian mainland, and is actually situated closer to some European member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Kaliningrad's militarization and Russia's policy of defending itself against NATO's Eastward Expansion have heightened the tensions among regional countries. Since 2008, Russia has activated the so-called ‘Iskander diplomacy’, redesigned its weapons of mass destruction, and launched large-scale military maneuvers. The 2014 Ukraine crisis showed that Russia has no intention to leave Eastern Europe. Moreover, Kremlin withdrew from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe in 2015. The combination of these measures led to the revival of militarism in the Kaliningrad region, and created a security dilemma in the Baltic Sea, when NATO member countries in the region reacted by emphasizing deterrence. In this paper, to make sense of the new developments in the region, the author attempts to answer two key questions:  1. What had been the most significant effects of the geostrategic position of Kaliningrad as Russia's external guardhouse in the Baltic Sea on the Russia-NATO security integral in the region?; and 2. What will be the most likely defense models of the Baltic countries given Russia's power preponderance in the region? In the hypothesis, it is asserted that the geographical location, resources, and re-militarization of Kaliningrad have led to the formation of a security dilemma in the Baltic region in the form of an arms race, which has in turn fueled the rival states' fear of each other and  has increased the probability of a threatening confrontation between military forces of Russia and NATO allies.
The research hypothesis will be tested within the framework of defensive realism theory, since the security dilemma is perhaps the theoretical cornerstone of defensive realism. The security dilemma theory and the broader spiral model constitute a persuasive theory of war between states, and explain the outbreak of war and the maintenance of peace. The advocates of the security dilemma theory argue that an increase in security of one state might make other states less secure, not because of misperceptions or imagined hostility, but because of the anarchic situation of international relations. The method of research is conceptual analysis, which is useful for examining concepts for their semantic structure. The main uses of conceptual analysis include refining and clarifying concepts in theory, practice, and research as well as arriving at precise theoretical and operational definitions for research. Conceptual analysis evaluates concepts, terms, variables, constructs, definitions, assertions, hypotheses and theories, by examining them for clarity and coherence, and critically scrutinizing their logical relations in order to identify assumptions and implications. Conceptual analysis, which is occasionally called theoretical research and closely related to critical thinking, is not merely a matter of language or language use. The conceptual analysis exposes (typically unconsciously) practical inconsistency, such as when someone rejects logic by employing a valid deductive argument or adopts a realist approach in their research while explicitly claiming allegiance to antirealist perspectives.
According to the conceptual analysis method derived from the rational positivism approach, the relationship between NATO and Russia is considered an integral game with the typical function of fear. The findings show that the current security spiral between Russia and NATO lies at the top of the defensive-offensive approach. However, this international game of power is one in which direct conflict is unlikely, at least in the short-run. The reliance on NATO’s nuclear weapon capabilities to provide a tangible assurance of the success of the Alliance’s credible deterrence has not been an ultimately reliable guarantee against Russia's regional ambitions. This failure is due to both morality and rationality because of the arguments made on the basis of practical and rational reasons, such as the territorial proximity of Russia and the Baltic counties, the difference in opinions and priorities within NATO, and potential for the escalation of conflict. Russia is justifiably considered to have conventional power preponderance in the Baltic region. The creation of a conventional balance of power in the Baltic region is not feasible for the Baltic countries either individually or collectively even with the provision of additional forward-positioned allied battalions. The defense models of the Baltic countries are by necessity fully nonaggressive, because there is no room for them to use pre-emptive initiatives, extraterritoriality, or hybrid instruments of defense policy.

Keywords


  1. الف) فارسی

    1. پیشگامی‌فرد، زهرا؛ حسین عرب. (1383) «ژئوپلیتیک دریای بالتیک و اهمیت منطقه‌ای آن»، فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک، 77، 22: 79-53، <
    2. ستاری، علی. (1396) «بررسی و نقد روش تحلیل مفهومی با رویکرد به پوزیتیویسم منطقی در پژوهش‌های تربیتی،» اندیشه‌های نوین تربیتی، 13، 1: 114-91، DOI:10.22051/jontoe.2017.9494.1241> <
    3. واثق، محمود؛ و دیگران. (1400) «گسترش قلمرو ناتو در مناطق بالتیک، دریای سیاه، و اروپای شرقی و پیامدهای آن برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران،» پژوهش‌های جغرافیای انسانی، 53، 1: 364-343، <DOI:10.22059/jhgr.2020.279402.1007901> 

    ب) انگلیسی 

    1. Abel, Scott; and Tekstikoda OÜ, eds. (2021) International Security and Estonia 2021, trans. Margus Elings. Tallinn: Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. Available at: https://www.valisluureamet.ee/doc/raport/2021-en.pdf (Accessed 15 July 2021).
    2. Acharya, Avidit; and Kristopher Ramsay. (2013, March) "The Calculus of the Security Dilemma,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 8, 2: 183-203, <DOI:10.1561/100.00011066>.
    3. Altman, Dan. (2018) "Advancing without Attacking: The Strategic Game around the Use of Force,” Security Studies 27, 1: 58-88, <DOI:10.1080/ 09636412.2017.1360074>.
    4. Anderson, Benedict. (2006) Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. London: Verso.
    5. Belova, Anna Valerievna, et al. (2015) "The Future Role of Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia as an International Development Corridor,” Eurolimes 19: 57-68, .
    6. Bojang, Osman. (2017) Enemy at the Gates_ Understanding the Annexation of Crimea by Looking at NATO Enlargement. Leiden: Leiden University.
    7. Brauss, Heinrich. (2020, February 26) “A Threatening Neighbor,” Berlin Policy Journal. Available at: https://berlinpolicyjournal.com/a-threatening-neighbor (Accessed 7 July 2021).
    8. Brauss, Heinrich, et al. (2020) Capability and Resolve, Deterrence, Security and Stability in the Baltic Region. Tallinn: Konorad Adenaur Stiftung.
    9. Elak, Leszek; and Zdzisław Śliwa. (2016) "The Suwalki Gap: NATO’s Fragile Hot Spot,” Zeszyty Naukowe AON 103, 2: 24-41. Available at: https://b2n.ir/h71400 (Accessed 7 June 2021).
    10. Giles, Keir; and Mathieu Boulegue. (2019) "Russia's A2/AD Capabilities: Real and Imagined,” Parameters 49, 1: 21-36. Available at: https://press. armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol49/iss1/4 (Accessed 18 June 2021).
    11. Glaser, Charles L.; and Chaim Kaufmann. (1998) "What is the Offense-Defense Balance and can We Measure it? (Offense, Defense, and International Politics),” International Security 22, 4: 44-82. Available at: https://b2n.ir/q85250 (Accessed 14 July 2021).
    12. Gromadzki, Grzegorz; and Andrzej Wilk. (2010) Overcoming Alienation: Kaliningrad as a Russian Enclave Inside the European Union. Warsaw: Stefan Batory Foundation.
    13. Hurt, Martin. (2020, September 7) “Military Tension Increases in the Baltic Sea Region,” Commentary, icds.ee. (International Center for Defense and Security). Available at: https://icds.ee/en/military-tension-increases-in-the-baltic-sea-region (Accessed 5 June 2021).
    14. Ivanauskas, Vilius, et al. (2017) "Kaliningrad Factor in Lithuanian -Russian Relations: Implications to the Security Issues of Lithuania,” Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 15, 1: 119-149, .
    15. Jovic-Lazic, Ana; and Marko Nikolic. (2012) "The Position of the Kaliningrad Region of the Russian Federation after the Enlargement of the European Union,” in Dragana Mitrovic, et al. eds. The Meaning of Border and Border Issues in the Age of Globalization: Europe and Asia. Belgrade: ‎ Institut za Medjunarodnu Politiku i Privredu.
    16. Kerrane, Evan. (2020) "Russian Insecurities: How Fear Drives Perception in the Near Abroad,” Journal on Baltic Security 6, 1: 23-32, <DOI:10.2478/jobs-2020-0004>.
    17. Lobell, Steven. (2010) "Structural Realism/Offensive and Defensive Realism,” in Robert A. Denemark and Renée Marlin-Bennett, eds. The International Studies Encyclopedia. Oxford: Oxford University Press, <DOI:10.1093/ acrefore/ 9780190846626.013.304>.
    18. Lynn-Jones, Sean. (1995). "Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics,” Security Studies 4, 4: 660-691, <DOI:10.1080/09636419509347600>.
    19. “Minsk–Vilnius–Kaunas–Kaliningrad Natural Gas Pipeline,” (2020, July) Hydrocarbons-Technology.com. Available at: https://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/minskvilniuskaunaskaliningrad-natural-gas-pipeline (Accessed 4 July 2021).
    20. Mite, Valentinas. (2002, September) “Russia: Is Kaliningrad Looking for a New Identity?” rferl.org. Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/1100742.html (Accessed 10 June 2021).
    21. Naumkin, Sergey. (2004) Possibility of Kaliningrad Integration into the Single European Space. Berlin: Humboldt Universitat zu Berlin.
    22. Olberg, Ingmar. (2019, March 26) “Kaliningrad’s Problematic Exclave Status,” Baltic Worlds 12: 70-72. Available at: http://balticworlds.com/kaliningrads-problematic-exclave-status (Accessed 11 March 2021).
    23. Orlenok, Vyacheslav V., et al. (2015) "Mineral Resources of the Kaliningrad Region,” Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences 6, 6: 252-256, <DOI:10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n6s7p252>.
    24. Pesu, Matti. (2020) “Hard Security Dynamics,” in Matti Pesu, ed. The Baltic Sea Region: From Turbulence to Tense Stability. Helsinki: FIIA.
    25. Petraitis, Daivis. (2018) "The Anatomy of Zapad-2017: Certain Features of Russian Military Planning,” Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 16, 1: 229-267, <DOI:10.2478/lasr-2018-0009>.
    26. Richard, Yann, et al. (2018) "The Russian Exclave of Kaliningrad. Challenges and Limits of its Integration in the Baltic Region,” Baltic Region 10, 1: 89-106, <DOI:10.4000/cybergeo.26945>.
    27. Statista. (2021, July) “Countries with the Highest Military Spending Worldwide in 2020,” statistica.com. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/ 262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending (Accessed 8 July 2021).
    28. Sukhankin, Sergey. (2017) “Kaliningrad and Baltic Region Security,” Monografias Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB). Available at: https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_seres/monographs (Accessed 2 August 2021).
    29. “Suwalki Gap,” (2021, August) Global Security.org. Available at: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/suwalki-gap.htm (Accessed 2 August 2021).
    30. Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. (2000) "Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited,” International Security 25, 3: 128-161, <DOI:10.1162/ 016228800560543>.
    31. “Trip Wire: NATO's Russia Dilemma,” (2016, November 10) Carnegie.org. Available at: https://www.carnegie.org/news/articles/trip-wire-natos-russia-dilemma (Accessed 5 June 2021).
    32. US Census Bureau. (2021, August) “Kaliningrad Population 2021,” World Population Review. Available at: https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/kaliningrad-population (Accessed 10 August 2021).
    33. Veebel, Viljar. (2018) "NATO Options and Dilemmas for Deterring Russia in the Baltic States,” Defense Studies 18, 2: 229-251, <DOI:10.1080/ 14702436.2018.1463518>.
    34. Veebal, Vilijar; and Zdzislaw Sliwa. (2019) "Kaliningrad, the Suwalki Gap and Russia`s Ambitions in the Baltic Region,” Journal of International Studies 3, 12: 109-121, <DOI:10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-3/9>.
    35. Ventsel, Andreas, et al. (2019) “Discourse Of Fear In Strategic Narratives: The Case Of Russia’s Zapad War Games,” Media, War & Conflict 00, 0: 1-19, <DOI:10.1177/1750635219856552>.
    36. Wivel, Andres. (2011) "Security Dilemma,” in Bertrand Badie, et al., eds. The International Encyclopedia of Political Science. London: Sage Publications, <DOI:10.4135/9781412959636.n549>.
    37. Żyła, Marek. (2019). "Kaliningrad Oblast in the Military System of the Russian Federation,” Security and Defense Quarterly 25, 3: 99-117, <DOI:10.35467/ sdq/105636>.