نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار گروه روابط بین الملل و مطالعات منطقه ای دانشکدۀ علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Introduction
As China’s economic and political power continues to grow, many scholars have debated whether China will catch up to the United States, leading to a new bipolar international system, or surpass the U.S. to become the new hegemon in a unipolar world. With China's gradual rise on the global stage, questions abound regarding its future role in the international system. Currently, the United States remains the sole superpower, but it faces increasing competition from China. The central question is whether China can seriously challenge the U.S. as the dominant global power. In other words, if China maintains its current trajectory and policies, will it eventually attain hegemonic status? From a Gramscian perspective, the research hypothesis suggests that China’s recent advancements are primarily driven by its material capabilities—military and economic—while it still lacks the necessary institutional and ideational capacities to become a true global or regional hegemon. Ultimately, it appears that, in the foreseeable future, the prospect of China achieving hegemonic status remains uncertain, and it is more likely to continue as a great power on the international stage.
Introduction
After nearly a century of viewing itself as a victim of the great powers and decades of internal revolution that kept it isolated from the world, China is transforming into a confident and rising great power. The country’s growing economic and political influence is evident through its active engagement in both bilateral and multilateral diplomacy. China now operates within the framework of the contemporary international system and has become socialized into prevailing international norms. The economic revolution—marked by embracing free markets, opening up to foreign investment, and fostering enterprise—has driven nearly four decades of extraordinary growth, averaging over 9 percent annually. As the world’s second-largest economy, China maintains that its goal is to pursue a “peaceful rise,” which many see as a viable economic model for other developing nations. This raises an important question: how are China’s policies and actions influencing the configuration of the international system, particularly in terms of the distribution of global power?
The research method
This paper is a theory-driven study that employs Gramscianism to develop a conceptual framework for assessing China's potential to achieve hegemonic status. The framework is based on three key indicators: power, institutions, and ideas. The data collection process relies on documentary and library sources.
Results and Discussion
Some analysts suggest that the world may eventually come under China’s leadership. They point to China’s growing economic ties with the Global South, its potential to expand into Western markets, and the possibility of establishing a new world order controlled by Beijing. China’s ongoing military expansion, together with its rising economic influence, signals broader global ambitions. However, others contend that China will remain a “partial power,” as, despite its extensive international presence, it lacks the capacity to significantly influence global events. Additionally, some argue that, despite considerable uncertainty about China’s future rise, the United States will likely maintain military superiority for decades to come. Consequently, the U.S. can choose to accommodate China’s rise rather than confront it, thereby avoiding the risks of turning China into a direct challenger.
Conclusions
This paper concludes that China’s recent rise has primarily been driven by its material military and economic capabilities. However, the country still lacks the sufficient institutional and ideational capacities necessary to attain the status of a global or even regional hegemon. Ultimately, it appears unlikely that China will pursue hegemonic ambitions in the foreseeable future; instead, it is likely to remain a major power on the global stage. What is certain, from a Gramscian perspective, is that China cannot be considered a true global hegemon in the near future, given the necessary combination of material, institutional, and ideological dominance inherent to the concept of hegemony.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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