نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
2 استادیار، گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3 دانشیار، گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction
The Jordan Basin is recognized as one of the most complex security-hydropolitical Security Complexes the world. In addition to historical political tensions among riparian countries, it faces challenges of rapid population growth and increasing water scarcity. The paper addresses the complex challenge of transboundary water management in the Jordan River Basin, where water scarcity intersects with geopolitical tensions. It emphasizes how post-Cold War changes in international power structures created new opportunities for water cooperation while maintaining historical tensions.
Methodology
This study utilizes qualitative methods and analysis of credible documents to examine vertical and horizontal relationships in the basin. The theoretical framework is based on the concept of security-hydropolitical complex, which extends the regional security complex theory with a specific focus on water resources, access, and the connection between water and the security of riparian states. This framework investigates the impacts of structural levels on water interactions, geopolitical dynamics of the basin, and the interrelation between water issues, security, and climate change.
Theoretical Framework
Building upon Buzan's concept of Regional Security Complex, Michael Schulz introduced the "Hydropolitical Security Complex" to describe the intricate relationships between states regarding shared water resource management. This concept demonstrates how water scarcity, access, and control have profound implications for state security. Schulz identified three pillars: hydrological interdependence, political interdependence, and security interdependence, analyzable through vertical and horizontal relationships where power dynamics play a crucial role.
Results and Discussion
Vertical Relations: The post-Cold War transformation significantly impacted the Jordan River Basin's vertical relations. Lebanon experienced political instability and Hezbollah's growing influence, affecting its water management capabilities. Syria's position weakened after losing Soviet support, leading to engagement in peace negotiations while maintaining water-related tensions with Israel. Jordan strategically aligned with Western powers, facilitating water cooperation agreements. Israel maintained military superiority while engaging in selective cooperation, particularly with Jordan. Palestinian water rights remained constrained by power asymmetry despite recognition in the Oslo Accords.
Horizontal Relations: The analysis of horizontal relations reveals complex patterns of cooperation and conflict in water management after the Cold War. The Madrid Conference initiated multilateral water negotiations, leading to the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty (1994) with significant water provisions. The Oslo II Agreement established the Joint Water Committee for the West Bank, though power asymmetry limited its effectiveness. Lebanon's Hasbani-Wazzani projects faced strong Israeli opposition, demonstrating continued water securitization. The Red Sea-Dead Sea Water Conveyance Project and the Water-Energy Agreement (2021) exemplify limited cooperation possibilities despite political tensions.
Power Dynamics Impact:The analysis reveals that power dynamics have influenced water relations in the Jordan River Basin through four interconnected mechanisms: water resource distribution and control, shaping countries' water policies, determining international cooperation levels, and joint management capabilities. These mechanisms operate within a complex geopolitical environment where military capabilities, technological advancement, and international support play crucial roles.
Water resource distribution and control has been predominantly shaped by Israel's strategic advantage, particularly after the 1967 war, extending to technological superiority in water management. The shaping of water policies reflects regional power dynamics, with Jordan seeking cooperative solutions due to its dependence on transboundary waters, while Israel maintains selective cooperation while pursuing independent water policies. International cooperation levels have been influenced by geopolitical alignments and security concerns, with the Oslo Peace Process creating opportunities for water cooperation, though limited by trust deficits. Joint management capabilities reveal how power asymmetries affect institutional arrangements, with some bilateral arrangements succeeding while basin-wide management remains challenging.
These mechanisms have produced two distinct patterns: a conflict pattern characterized by direct security threats and power asymmetries, particularly evident in the Israel-Lebanon border region and occupied territories; and a limited cooperation pattern based on mutual interests and shared environmental concerns, exemplified by Israel-Jordan relations. The interaction between these mechanisms and patterns has created a complex hydropolitical landscape where water issues are inextricably linked to broader security and political concerns.
Conclusion
The analysis reveals that post-Cold War structural changes profoundly affected power dynamics and relationship patterns in the Jordan River Basin. The weakening of Soviet influence and increased U.S. involvement facilitated peace negotiations and water discussions. However, asymmetric water control and regional conflicts continue to challenge comprehensive cooperation. Climate change and population growth further complicate existing dynamics. The findings confirm that the four identified mechanisms operate within a complex system where changes in one component affect the entire system, highlighting the intricate relationship between water management and regional geopolitics.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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