دیدگاه راهبردی اسرائیل و برآورد تهدید امنیتی آن برای خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش شناسایی تهدیدهای امنیتی (به­ویژه تهدیدهای نظامی ناشی از برنامه­های تولید تسلیحات هسته­ای) اسرائیل، بررسی تأثیر این تهدیدها بر محیط امنیت منطقه­ای خاورمیانه، و ارائۀ راهکارهایی برای مقابله با آنهاست. پرسش­های پژوهشی عبارت‌اند از: 1. دیدگاه راهبردی و اصول سیاست‌های امنیت ملی اسرائیل چیست؟ 2. مهم‌ترین تهدیدهای امنیتی اسرائیل برای کشورهای خاورمیانه و به‌ویژه جمهوری اسلامی ایران چیست؟3. کشورهای منطقه باید چه سیاست­هایی را برای مقابله با این تهدیدها در سیاستگذاری دفاعی خود در نظر بگیرند؟ نتیجۀ کلی اینکه اگرچه سیاست­های امنیتی اسرائیل برای خاورمیانه تهدید به‌شمار می­آید، به دلایل بی‌شماری، از جمله آسیب­پذیری فزایندۀ اقتصادی ناشی از میلیتاریسم، وابستگی خارجی به قدرت­های بزرگ فرامنطقه­ای به‌ویژه آمریکا، درگیری­های سیاسی، اقتصادی- اجتماعی داخلی، برجسته­تر شدن نقش سیاسی و فعالیت­های مسلحانۀ گروه­های تروریستی، تضعیف و در نهایت برکناری دولت­های غیرمردمی و اقتدارگرای غرب­گرا در خاورمیانه، دولت نتانیاهو به اهداف راهبردی خود نخواهد رسید. در شرایطی که توازن قوای منطقۀ خاورمیانه به نفع دولت­ها، رهبران و ملت­های خواهان آزادی­، مردم­سالاری و عدالت اقتصادی- اجتماعی در حال تحول است، سیاست­های ناکارامد نظامی­گری، گسترش­طلبی و جنگ­افروزی به موفقیت حامیان آنها نمی­انجامد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


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