دیدگاه راهبردی اسرائیل و برآورد تهدید امنیتی آن برای خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش شناسایی تهدیدهای امنیتی (به­ویژه تهدیدهای نظامی ناشی از برنامه­های تولید تسلیحات هسته­ای) اسرائیل، بررسی تأثیر این تهدیدها بر محیط امنیت منطقه­ای خاورمیانه، و ارائۀ راهکارهایی برای مقابله با آنهاست. پرسش­های پژوهشی عبارت‌اند از: 1. دیدگاه راهبردی و اصول سیاست‌های امنیت ملی اسرائیل چیست؟ 2. مهم‌ترین تهدیدهای امنیتی اسرائیل برای کشورهای خاورمیانه و به‌ویژه جمهوری اسلامی ایران چیست؟3. کشورهای منطقه باید چه سیاست­هایی را برای مقابله با این تهدیدها در سیاستگذاری دفاعی خود در نظر بگیرند‌؟ نتیجۀ کلی اینکه اگرچه سیاست­های امنیتی اسرائیل برای خاورمیانه تهدید به‌شمار می­آید، به دلایل بی‌شماری، از جمله آسیب­پذیری فزایندۀ اقتصادی ناشی از میلیتاریسم، وابستگی خارجی به قدرت­های بزرگ فرامنطقه­ای به‌ویژه آمریکا، درگیری­های سیاسی، اقتصادی- اجتماعی داخلی، برجسته­تر شدن نقش سیاسی و فعالیت­های مسلحانۀ گروه­های تروریستی، تضعیف و در نهایت برکناری دولت­های غیرمردمی و اقتدارگرای غرب­گرا در خاورمیانه، دولت نتانیاهو به اهداف راهبردی خود نخواهد رسید. در شرایطی که توازن قوای منطقۀ خاورمیانه به نفع دولت­ها، رهبران و ملت­های خواهان آزادی­، مردم­سالاری و عدالت اقتصادی- اجتماعی در حال تحول است، سیاست­های ناکارامد نظامی­گری، گسترش­طلبی و جنگ­افروزی به موفقیت حامیان آنها نمی­انجامد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

ISRAEL’S STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE AND SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST

نویسنده [English]

  • Saideh Lotfian
Assocaite Professor; Department of Political Sciences, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The main objective of this study is to identify Israel’s security threats (especially the military threat posed by its nuclear weapons program), to assess the impact of these threats on regional security environment of the Middle East, and to recommend the formulation of strategies for coping with these threats. The main research questions are as follows: 1. What is the strategic vision and the principles of Israel's national security policies? 2. What are the characteristics of Israel's main security threats for the Middle East and in particular for the Islamic Republic of Iran? 3. What defense policies should the regional states formulate in order to eliminate these threats? The main conclusion is that Israel’s security policies pose threats to the Middle East, but Netanyahu’s government will not achieve its strategic goals due to reasons such as accumulative economic vulnerabilities caused by militarization, dependence on extra-regional powers, internal  socio-economic and political conflicts, augmented political role and activities of armed terrorist groups in the region, and ultimately the demise of unpopular and authoritarian governments in the Middle East. At a time when the Middle Eastern balance of power is changing in favor of governments, leaders and people who support freedom, democracy and socio-economic justice, inefficient policies of the advocates of militarism, aggression and warmongering will not succeed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • arms race
  • Balance of power
  • defense policymaking
  • deterrence
  • Islamic Republic of Iran
  • Israel
  • Middle East
  • Security threats
  • threat assessments

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فصلنامه سیاست
دوره 47، شماره 1
خرداد 1396
صفحه 179-200

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 21 تیر 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 15 اسفند 1395
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 01 آبان 1395

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