پویش محیطی و راهبردهای سیاست خارجی: قدرت‌های متوسط سیستم بین‌الملل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار روابط بین الملل، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، ایران.

چکیده

اصولاً با توجه به وقوع تحولات بنیادین در قواعد اصلی سیستم بین‌الملل، که ویژگی متغیر و شناور بودن پدیده‌ها به عنوان یک الزام و ضرورت سیاستگذاری، پیش‌روی استراتژیست‌ها و نظریه‌‌پردازان بین‌المللی قرار داده است، فرایند سیاستگذاری بسیار دشوار شده است. پیش‌بینی‌ناپذیر بودن پدیده‌های سیستمی، وقوع تکانه‌های شدید بنیادین در سیستم‌های پیچیده، تأثیرپذیری شدید عناصر سیستمی از قواعد به‌ظاهر فرعی فرایندها و جریانات سیستمی، منجر به ناکارآمد شدن فرایند کنترل بر سیستم پیچیده بین‌الملل شده است. از سوی دیگر، ویژگی تکاملی بودن سیستم بین‌الملل، قواعد رفتاری سیستم‌های پیچیده را بر پدیده‌های بین‌الملل تحمیل کرده است که هرچند کنترل آن به‌خصوص با توجه به اصول حاکم بر سیستم‌های کلاسیک بسیار سخت و دشوار است، اما مدیریت آنها در صورت توجه صحیح به فرایندهای پدیده‌های سیستمی چندان دشوار نمی‌نماید. در اینجا این سؤال طرح می‌شود که در وضعیت پیچیده بین‌الملل مهم‌ترین ابزار یاریگر راهبردهای بازیگران به‌ویژه بازیگران متوسط سلسله‌مراتب قدرت چیست؟ در پاسخ به پرسش پژوهش این فرضیه طرح می‌شود که پویش محیطی ابزار بسیار مهم فهم جریان وقایع و روندها در سیستم پیچیده بین‌الملل است که بازیگران متوسط به پایین سلسله‌مراتب قدرت در ترسیم راهبردهای خود برای فهم واقعیت‌های محیطی و انطباق خواسته‌ها با واقعیت‌ها از آن بهره می‌برند. یافته‌های پژوهش با رویکرد توصیفی- تحلیلی و روش کیفی و مطالعه موردی بیانگر این است که پویش محیطی، انعطاف‌پذیری را به‌عنوان یک اصل اساسی بر سیاست‌ها و راهبردهای بازیگران به‌ویژه بازیگران متوسط به پایین سلسله‌مراتب قدرت تحمیل می‌کند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Environmental Scanning and Foreign Policy Strategies: Middle Powers of the International System

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammadreza Faraji
Assistant Professor, International Relations, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Basically, the fundamental changes in the main rules of the international system have put the changing and floating nature of phenomena as a requirement and necessity in policy making for international strategists and theorists. The unpredictability of systemic phenomena, the occurrence of strong fundamental impulses in complex systems, the strong influence of system elements more than seemingly secondary rules of systemic processes and flows have led to the ineffectiveness of the control process over the complex international system. On the other hand, the evolutionary characteristic of the international system has imposed the rules of behavior of complex systems on international phenomena, which, although it is very difficult to control especially with regard to the principles governing classical systems, but their management is not difficult if proper attention is paid to the processes of systemic phenomena. Here this question is raised that, “what is the most important tool to help the strategies of the players, especially the middle players of the power hierarchy in the complex international situation?”. The research hypothesis is that, “environmental scanning is a very important tool for understanding the flow of events and trends in the complex international system”. The findings of the research using a descriptive-analytic approach and a qualitative method show that environmental scanning imposes flexibility on the strategies of actors, especially the middle actors of the power hierarchy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Adaptation
  • Flexibility
  • System
  • Evolution
  • Management
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