همکاری ایران، روسیه و جمهوری آذربایجان در ایجاد راه ‌گذر شمال– جنوب و تأثیر آن بر امنیت ملی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد مطالعات منطقه ای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

طرح‌های اقتصادی بزرگ در منطقه اوراسیا، ریشه در بازی‌های بزرگ کسب قدرت و دستیابی به جایگاه ویژه و باثبات در نظام بین‌الملل دارد. راه‌گذر شمال- جنوب، طرحی اقتصادی است که با هدف تسهیل حمل‌ونقل و افزایش تجارت جهانی طراحی شده است. پرسش اصلی پژوهش این است که همکاری ایران، جمهوری آذربایجان و فدراسیون روسیه در این راه‌گذر چه تأثیری بر امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران دارد؟ با استفاده از نظریه گیلپین در مورد اقتصاد جهانی، نگارندگان درصدد آزمون این فرضیه اصلی برآمدند که استدلال می‌کند همکاری جمهوری اسلامی ایران، جمهوری آذربایجان و فدراسیون روسیه در راه‌گذر بین‌المللی شمال- جنوب با تسهیل حمل‌ونقل سبب ارتقای سطح روابط سیاسی ایران با کشورهای اوراسیا، کاهش تهدیدهای منطقه‌ای و افزایش منافع اقتصادی ایران در منطقه می‌شود. با گردآوری داده‌های دست‌دوم موجود در منابع علمی و داده‌های دست‌اول گردآوری‌شده با استفاده از روش پیمایشی، پرسشنامه‌هایی به کارشناسان ارائه شد تا میزان تسهیل تجارت بر امنیت سیاسی و اقتصادی ایران در قفقاز بررسی شود. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که همکاری مبتنی بر راه‌گذر شمال- جنوب برای برخورداری از مزیت رقابتی لازم به‌دلیل رقابت ایران و روسیه در تجارت انرژی، نیازمند اهرم‌های سیاسی اقتصادی قدرتمند کشور و اقدام‌های همکاری‌جویانه با اوراسیاست.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Trilateral Cooperation of Iran-Azerbaijan-Russia in the North-South Corridor and Iran’s National Security

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elahe Kolaee 1
  • Abed Norouzi Zarmehri 2
1 Professor, Department of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law & Political Science, University of Tehran, Iran
2 A PhD Candidate in Regional Studies, Faculty of Law & Political Science, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The major economic plans in the Eurasia are deeply rooted in the great games played by the regional states for the purpose of constantly gaining more power and ever-expanding influence in order to acquire and maintain an advantageous position in the international system. The main function of the North-South Corridor as an economic project is to facilitate transportation and trade at the regional and global levels. In this paper, the authors attempt to find answers to the following research question: How will  the trilateral cooperation of Iran-Azerbaijan-Russia in the North-South Corridor affect Iran’s national security? Within the framework of Gilpin's theory of the global economy and the challenges and opportunities in intensifying economic integration by trade and investment, they examine the consequences of economic cooperation between Iran and the two Eurasian states of Russia and Azerbaijan. In the substantive hypothesis, it is asserted that these three countries’ cooperation in the North-South international corridor facilitates transportation and trade of commodities, and improves Iran's political relations with regional countries by reducing threats and providing Iran with opportunities for mutually beneficial economic interactions in Eurasia. One of the purposes of the paper is to understand the nature of relations between Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan. In the past, political and military considerations had a greater impact on the relations between Iran and Russia, as compared to economic ones.
     During the Cold War, Iran was an arena for confrontation where conflict between the great powers played out, because the rival states sought to    gain more influence in Iran as one of the most strategically located states in the  region. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Moscow continued to pursue the goal of maintaining  cordial relations with Tehran in the hope of preventing the rival powers from driving a wedge between the two states. Russia keeps a watchful eye on Iran’s foreign policy and its impact on the Caspian Sea, Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East. The North-South corridor came at a time when Putin was proposing the idea of Russia acting as a modern law-abiding great power. In line with this policy, Moscow decided to increase its bilateral cooperation with Iran and simultaneously interact constructively with the West. The inauguration of Donald Trump as the new U.S. president, followed by the withdrawal of Washington from the JCPOA, as well as the reimposition of additional economic sanctions against Iran, weakened the P5-Iran nuclear deal, and were among the factors which influenced the nature of Iran-Russia relations during Putin's fourth term. After the outbreak of war in Syria, and the advent of different approaches adopted by the leaders in the two countries to support the Bashar Assad regime demonstrated the limits of Moscow-Tehran cooperation in the region. However, Russia under Putin has often sought to treat Iran as a regional power in contrast to the U.S. regional policies. Despite their different foreign policy objectives as related to certain policy issues such as Syria and Israel, Iran and Russia still have the intention and capability to cooperate in Eurasia and elsewhere in the international system. Western sanctions against Iran and Russia have created another reason for the two countries’ interest in expanding bilateral trade ties.
      Iran with its large population provides a large market for Russian goods and services, and  thus Russia has tried to encourage closer cooperation between Iran and the member states of Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).  For its part, Iran also looks at the EEU with its significant market as a good opportunity to become one of the most important routes for the transfer of goods and services between the countries in this union and South Asia, particularly India. Iranian policymakers have planned to improve economic and trade relations between Iran and South Caucasian countries. The North-South corridor has also created a good opportunity for Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan to work toward more cooperation based on mutual interest. The government in Baku joined the process in 2005 with the aim of increasing its strategic importance and power in the South Caucasus.
In order to analyze the relationship between the volume of trade facilitated by the North-South Corridor and Iran's political and economic security in the Caucasus, the authors rely on the available secondary data sources as well as data collected by the use of the method of  survey research in which a group of experts were asked to complete a questionnaire. The result showed that most respondents considered the impact of economic factors (e.g., free trade, customs status and security of basic goods) to be more important than the political-security factors (e.g., terrorism, extremism and the rivalry of major powers). The findings show that the North-South corridor will certainly have positive economic consequences by facilitating trade, but it could indirectly bring about non-economic benefits by encouraging closer political  ties which will help these states to collectively combat terrorism and confront other common security threats. Iran’s cooperation with Russia and Azerbaijan in completing the North-South corridor will increase regional trade and economic mobility and will enhance Iran’s national security due to the following reasons: 1. Encouraging free trade, 2. Modernizing trade infrastructure, 3. Increasing the investment by the private sector, 4. Facilitating economic diversification, 5. Decreasing the negative impact of U.S. sanctions against Iran and Russia, 6. Increasing Iran’s economic relations with the Eurasian countries which might generate more export revenues, 7. Increasing Iran’s bargaining power on various regional issues, 8. Iran’s membership in regional organizations reduces its international isolation and helps it to be in a better position to interact with state and non-state extra-regional players such as the World Bank, and WTO, 9. Facilitating regional cooperation in confronting external security threats in the region. However, for the purpose of achieving maximum benefits from cooperation based on the North-South Corridor, strong political and economic incentives are required to motivate the Eurasian countries to work with Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Iran
  • Azerbaijan
  • Russia
  • National security
  • North-South Corridor
  1.  افضلی، رسول؛ مصطفی رشیدی، افشین متقی. (1391) «تحلیل ساختار ژئوپلیتیکی حاکم بر روابط دوجانبه ایران و جمهوری آذربایجان از 1991 تا 2010 میلادی با رویکرد جغرافیایی برساخت‌گرایی،» پژوهش‌های جغرافیایی انسانی، 80: 19-1. در: <http://ensani.ir/fa/article/journal-number/38564>

    2. امیراحمدیان، بهرام. (1399، دی 8) «کریدور ارمنستان و نخجوان هرگز ایجاد نخواهد شد،» بندر و دریا، 35، 37-36. در: <https://www.pmo.ir/fa/news/52671>.

    3.بوزان، باری. (1396) مردم، دولت‌ها و هراس، ترجمه پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی. تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی، چ 4.

    4.شاه‌آبادی، ابوالفضل؛ بهزاد امیری؛ مهسا گنجی. (1395) «تأثیر نهادها بر نرخ بیکاری،» فصلنامه پژوهش‌ها و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، <79: 188-165. http://qjerp.ir/article-1-903-fa.html> 

    5.کاظمی، احمد. (1384) امنیت در قفقاز جنوبی. تهران: ابرار معاصر.

    6.کولایی، الهه. (1390) اتحاد شوروی و انقلاب اسلامی ایران. تهران: علم.

     

    1. Akbarzadeh, Shahram. (2015) "Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Ideology and Realpolitik in Iranian Foreign Policy,” Australian Journal of International Affairs 69, 1: 88-103, .
    2. Almetova, Vladimir, et al. (2019, July) “The Integrative Process of Transport Systems of the Eurasian Economic Union,” IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science, .
    3. Aminian, Bahador. (2018, September) "Strategic Cooperation in the Transitional Period: Iran and Russia," in the Institute for Regional Studies (IRS), Shahid Beheshti University, Iran and Russia after the U.S. Withdrawal from the JCPOA; Opportunities and Obstacles to Cooperation, IRS Papers #2/97. Available at: https://www.hse.ru/data/2018/10/18/1156416306/H%20 Print %20%20Executive%20Summery%20IRS%20&%20HSE%20September%202018.pdf (Accessed 12 May 2020).
    4. Azizi, Hamidreza. (2017) “Iranian-Russian Cooperation in Central Asia: Opportunities and Constraints,” The Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies (ir). Available at: http://www.iras.ir/en/doc/article/3242/iranian-russian-cooperation -in-central-asia-opportunities-and-constraints (Accessed 12 May 2020).
    5. Bayramov, Vugar; and Ahmad Alili. (2018, May) "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Trump, Iran and Azerbaijan: How to be a Good Neighbor in a Turbulent Geopolitical Context?" CESD Paper, Baku: Center for Economic & Social Development. Available at: https://think-asia.org/bitstream/handle/ 11540/10237/CESD-Paper-JCPA-Iran-Azerbaijan.pdf?sequence=1 (Accessed 2 June 2020).
    6. Davoodi, Taghi. (2016) “Political and Cultural Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan: A Review,” International Journal of Humanities and Cultural Studies 1, 1: 1997-2004. Available at: https://www.ijhcs.com/ php/ ijhcs/article/view/2050/1875 (Accessed 2 May 2020).
    7. Gilpin, Robert G. (2000) The Challenge of Global Capitalism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
    8. ———. (1984, Spring) “The Richness of the Tradition of Political Realism,” International Organization 38, 2: 287-304. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2706441 (Accessed 10 June 2020).
    9. Grajewski, Nicole. (2020, July) "Russia and Iran in Greater Eurasia," in Batmanghelidj, Esfandyar, ed. Insights: Iran’s Bilateral Relations in the New Eurasian Context. Available at: https://mei.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/ 2020/07/INSIGHTS_July-2020.pdf (Accessed 15 November 2020).
    10. Griffiths, Martin. (1999) Fifty Key Thinkers in International Relations. New York: Routledge.
    11. Hodaei, Alireza. (2019) “Iran and Azerbaijan Strengthen Ties for the First Time in More than 40 Years,” TRT World. Available at: https://www.trtworld. com/opinion/iran-and-azerbaijan-strengthen-ties-for-first-time-in-more-than-40-years-23530 (Accessed 5 May 2020).
    12. “Iran Turkmenistan– Kazakhstan Rail Link Inaugurated,” (2014, December 4) Railway Gazette International. Available at: https://www.railwaygazette. com/ asia/iran-turkmenistan-kazakhstan-rail-link-inaugurated/40284 (Accessed 20 March 2020).
    13. Islamian, Kiana. (2019, November) “The Russia-Iran Relationship in a Sanctions Era,” Russia and Eurasia Program, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (se). Available at: https://www.ui.se/ utrikesmagasinet/analyser/ 2019/november/ the- russia-iran-relationship-in-a-sanction-era (Accessed 5 May 2020).
    14. Islamic Development Bank, Global Advisory and Training Services. (2011, September) A Study of International Transport Corridors in OIC Member Countries. Available at: http://www.comcec.org/wp-content/ uploads/2015/ 02/IDB-TransportCorridors-Study.pdf (Accessed 4 May 2020).
    15. Israyelyan, Armen. (2019) “Political and Economic Significance of Iran’s Cooperation with EEU,” The Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies (ir). Available at: http://www.iras.ir/en/doc/article/3851/political-and-economic-significance-of-iran-s-cooperation-with-eeu (Accessed 5 May 2020).
    16. Karavayev, Alexander; and Mandana Tishehyar. (2019) “International North–South Transport Corridor and Transregional Integration Scenarios,” Valdai Discussion Club Report, Moscow. Available at: https://valdaiclub.com/ a/reports/north-south-transport-corridor (Accessed 14 April 2020).
    17. Katzman, Kenneth. (2021) “Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies,” Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report R44017. Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R44017.pdf (Accessed 5 May 2020).
    18. Koolaee, Elaheh. (2018, September) "Geopolitical Necessities of Expanding Iran-Russia Relations,” in the Institute for Regional Studies (IRS), Shahid Beheshti University, Iran and Russia after the U.S. Withdrawal from the JCPOA; Opportunities and Obstacles to Cooperation, IRS Papers #2/97. Available at: https://www.hse.ru/data/2018/10/18/1156416306/H%20Print% 20%20Executive%20Summery%20IRS%20&%20HSE%20September%202018.pdf (Accessed 12 May 2020).
    19. Kozhanov, Nikolay. (2020, April) “Russia: Iran’s Ambivalent Partner,” in Azadeh Zamirirad, ed. Forced to Go East? Iran’s Foreign Policy Outlook and the Role of Russia, China and India. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) Working Papers, German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Available at: https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/ arbeitspapiere/Working_Paper_FG06_01-2020__Forced_to_Go_East_ pdf (Accessed 19 December 2020).
    20. ———. (2015, May) “Understanding the Revitalization of Russian-Iranian Relations,” Carnegie Moscow Center (org) Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP_Kozhanov_web_ Eng.pdf (Accessed 20 June 2020).
    21. Masood, Hana. (2020) “Should India Join Hands with the Eurasian Economic Union?” com. Available at: https://www.youngbhartiya.com/ article/should-india-join-hands-with-the-eurasian-economic-union (2 May 2020).
    22. Moshashai, Daniel. (2019, August 2) "The INSTC, Transregional Connectivity and Geopolitics,” net. Available at: https://castlereagh.net/the-instc-transregional-connectivity-and-geopolitics (Accessed 21 February 2020).
    23. Noori, Ali Reza. (2018) "The US Factor in Iran-Russia Relations in Regional and International Contexts,” in the Institute for Regional Studies (IRS), Shahid Beheshti University, Iran and Russia after the U.S. Withdrawal from the JCPOA; Opportunities and Obstacles to Cooperation, IRS Papers #2/97. Available at: https://www.hse.ru/data/2018/10/18/ 1156416306/H%20Print% 20%20Executive%20Summery%20IRS%20&%20HSE%20September%202018.pdf (Accessed 12 May 2020).
    24. Passi, Ritika. (2017, April) “Money Matters: Discussing the Economics of the INSTC,” Observer Research Foundation (Orf) Occasional Paper 112. Available at: https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/OccasionalPaper_ 112_INSTC_ Final.pdf (4 July 2020).
    25. Sakwa, Richard. (1980) Soviet Politics. London: Routledge.
    26. Singh, Suresh P.; and Manila Sharma. (2017) “INSTC: India-Russia’s Trade to Get a Major Boost,” Russian International Affairs Council (ru). Available at: https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/ instc-india-russia-s-trade-to-get-a-major-boost (Accessed 20 March 2020).
    27. Suchkov, Maxim A.; and Polina I. Vasilenko. (2019, November) “The Pendulum of Russian-Iranian Relations: From Common Goals to Divergent Interests,” in Annalisa Perteghella, ed. Iran Looking East: An Alternative to the EU. Milano, Italy: ISPI. Available at: https://www.ispionline.it/ sites/default/files/ pubblicazioni/ ispi_iran_looking_web.pdf (Accessed 4 April 2020).
    28. Valiyev, Anar; and Narmina Mamishova. (2019) “Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy towards Russia Since Independence: Compromise Achieved,” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 19, 2: 269-291,